Mortgage rates ticked up again this past week, and market analysts warn they could continue to climb, even as home prices also somehow just keep moving further skyward.

This combination of factors puts a tighter squeeze on buyers’ affordability—raising the question of just how much more a home costs now, in the wake of a tumultuous period that will be remembered as the COVID-19-era housing market.

So how bad is the affordability crunch across the U.S.? We took a deep dive into the data to find out. A close inspection of homebuyers’ affordability challenges in summer 2023 reveals a stark situation, especially for first-time homebuyers.

Using the 7.37% mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reported last week, together with a 20% down payment, the monthly payment for a buyer looking for an average U.S. home has now doubled since before the pandemic, growing from just under $1,200 in summer 2019 to $2,430 in July 2023. Wages have risen during these years, but they trail far behind the increase in monthly homeownership costs.

This situation casts a harsh spotlight on affordability, with market conditions challenging buyers to find hundreds or even thousands of dollars more each month to own a home.

“Higher rates combined with higher house prices is just crushing affordability,” says Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “And that’s partly why we have almost no home sales.”

And the increased homeownership costs are even more dramatic for the lower price segment often referred to as “starter homes,” putting the most pressure on first-time homebuyers who already face the burden of saving for a home without the benefit of accruing equity.

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Our examination of the data shows starter homes in some areas of the country now have a monthly payment that is triple or nearly quadruple what it was a few years ago.

In Wichita, KS, known for its robust industrial and aviation economy, the monthly payment for a starter home has increased by a staggering 271% since 2019—the largest percentage increase, and the result of starter home prices rising from about $85,000 to now $210,000, combined with the currently elevated mortgage rates.

These soaring monthly costs for homes that cater to first-time buyers are reflected across some of the most historically affordable parts of the country, testing a key component of the American heartland’s charm: low home prices.

Take Fort Wayne, IN, where starter homes cost almost $900 more per month now, compared with 2019. The cost of those homes has soared from around $102,500 to $229,900. That means the monthly payment will now be about $1,270, compared with only $329 four short years ago.

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In Greensboro, NC, previously affordable starter homes have gone from around $81,000 in 2019 to about $182,000, following the pattern of climbing prices and closing the price gap with other nearby and much higher-priced areas like Durham and Raleigh.

The story is similar in Memphis, TN, an iconic Southern city known for its musical roots and low cost of living. The monthly payment on a two-bedroom home there rose by more than 216% since 2019. With an average price of just $56,950 in July 2019, Memphis was one of the most affordable metros in the country, but starter home prices now are around $120,000.

And in Killeen, TX, after starter home prices jumped from $95,175 to $189,500, the monthly cost is up 199%.

“I don’t think people can afford these homes,” Zandi says, “unless mortgage rates come down or incomes significantly rise.”

It could be years before things get back to something that feels like “normal,” Zandi argues, and there might be room for prices to correct as interest rates stay elevated.

“If that’s the case, I do think house prices will correct as people who’ve been putting off selling their home have to because of life events—whether a divorce, or children, or some life change—and so we will see home prices correcting,” he says. “They’ll simply have to transact at a lower price.”

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