Do Early Birds Buy the House? 9 Cities Where the Spring Housing Rush Starts Sooner Than You Think

Do Early Birds Buy the House? 9 Cities Where the Spring Housing Rush Starts Sooner Than You Think

February 26, 2024
Allentown PA, Bridgeport CA, data journalism, home inventory, inventory levels, Los Angeles CA, New York NY, Oxnard CA, Philadelphia PA, Salisbury MD, San Jose CA, spring housing market, Tallahassee FL, Trends
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Evan Wyloge

Housing typically follows a seasonal pattern, hibernating during the colder months and heating up as temperatures rise. This explains why many homebuyers dive into the market right as summer begins.

However, the housing market is not a monolith. Regional and local factors significantly affect every facet of real estate. So, while most U.S. housing markets currently await the seasonal awakening, certain parts of the country are already on the brink of an early bloom this spring.

These early-to-rise spring markets are prime opportunities for homebuyers hoping to beat the summer rush and sellers looking to reel in an offer before the competition heats up.

So with the end of winter now in sight, we began to wonder: Which markets warm up earliest? Naturally, we turned to the data.

We inspected listing data from the past several years to find markets that see a surge in homes for sale earlier than the rest of the country: in March, April, and May. Then, from among the 150 largest metro areas, we compared the inventory in these three months with their annual low and high points, selecting the metros where these spring months are relatively the strongest.

We discovered nine metro areas that defy the national trend and start springing into action as early as March—right when inventory in the rest of the country is at its lowest point of the year.

Why certain housing markets ‘wake up’ early

You might think it’s Sun Belt cities where buyers and sellers get an early start, and we did find that to be the case in some of the sunnier housing markets. Three of them are nestled along California’s coast, where mild weather is a year-round luxury. Another hot spot is in the Sunshine State itself: Florida.

But we were rather surprised to find markets in the Northeast where the inventory wave starts early—including Philadelphia and New York City—challenging assumptions that warm weather is required to get markets moving.

Tallahassee, FL, and San Jose, CA, stand out as early peakers. Tallahassee nearly reaches its inventory peak by April, and San Jose witnesses a dramatic inventory surge from February to March. The same is somewhat true for New York City.

In markets such as Salisbury, MD, and Los Angeles—an unlikely pair of markets to be sure—it’s the stability of the inventory that makes spring a relatively active part of the year. Salisbury shows a steady increase through spring, while Los Angeles, despite a shallower rise, sees a significant dip in December.

“L.A. is very much a market that is busy all year-round,” says James Harris, a principal at TheAgencyRE.com in Los Angeles. “The weather is always nice, so if someone wants to list their home in October, in January, in April, they’re going to have interested buyers. And certainly, come springtime, the weather is beautiful. Plus, buyers typically have their taxes out of the way and they’re ready to buy.”

Just north of Los Angeles in the Oxnard metro, which includes Ventura, the seasonal inventory curve mirrors the national trend but starts about two months earlier, in March. It’s a similar story in Allentown, PA, and Bridgeport, CT. Allentown’s market is about halfway to its annual peak by April, underscoring the advantage for buyers and sellers to act early.

Matt Murray, a senior vice president at Higgins Group Private Brokerage in Bridgeport, says the market there is competitive and the most successful buyers and sellers are those who start early.

“As a company, we know that the spring market started on Jan. 1,” says Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants.

People should think about inventory as a “two-humped camel,” he says, “with a bigger hump in the spring.”

The first “hump” of the year, Miller explains, is when sellers enter the market and list their homes.

“That’s when inventory is rising in anticipation of more demand,” as opposed to later in the year, he explains, “when inventory is rising because of less demand and homes are stacking up in the market.”

For those looking to get ahead of the market in 2024, knowing that the spring surge comes early is the first step. Below, see our list of the U.S. housing markets that warm up early, along with their median list prices.